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Average rainfall this season is expected to be 103 per cent of above normal monsoon this year

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Upgrading outlook for the southwest monsoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) today said India’s rainfed agriculture tracts would receive above normal rains — 106 per cent of the long period average (LPA) — this year.

“The average rainfall this season is expected to be 103 per cent of the LPA,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra today said, releasing the updated long-range forecast of rainfall and monthly outlook for temperature and rainfall during June.

Seasonal rains over the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rainfed agriculture regions, is most likely to be above normal (>106 per cent of the LPA), he said 

During the June-September season, seasonal rains are expected to be above normal for central India (>106 per cent of LPA) and South Peninsula (>106 per cent of LPA), normal over northeast India (96-106 per cent of LPA) and northwest India (92-108 per cent of LPA).

In its last forecast in April, the IMD had said the country would receive normal rainfall (99 per cent of the LPA). The LPA for the entire country is 87 cm. In June, “normal or above normal rainfall” is expected over several parts of northwest and central India, northern parts of South Peninsula and some parts of eastern India and “below normal rains” over several parts of northeast India, some pockets of central and eastern India and southern parts of South Peninsular India.

As far as temperatures are concerned, below normal maximum temperatures can be expected over most parts of the country except some parts of the Northwest where above normal temperatures are likely. This is the fourth consecutive year that India will experience normal monsoon. India had also witnessed normal monsoon during the periods between 2005 and 2008, 2010 and 2013, 1988 and 1999, 1975 and 1978, and 1953 and 1964, the IMD said.

Mohapatra said that in the near future, India could witness normal monsoons as the decadal epoch of below normal rains was nearing its end. “We are now moving towards a normal monsoon epoch,” the IMD Director General said.


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