The decades-long shadow war between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran has transitioned into a period of direct, open military confrontation.
This new phase of hostilities commenced on Saturday with a series of joint US-Israeli air strikes targeting Iranian territory. This escalation marks a significant departure from previous years of proxy conflicts and clandestine operations, signalling a high-stakes gamble by the Trump administration to forcibly alter the geopolitical scenario of the Middle East.
President Donald Trump officially confirmed the military action in an eight-minute video shared via Truth Social on February 28. In his address, the US president described the mission as a major combat operation intended to prevent Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon. The Pentagon has since identified this offensive as Operation Epic Fury. President Trump articulated a zero-tolerance objective for the mission, stating that the US intends to destroy Iran’s missile industry entirely, promising that the infrastructure will be totally obliterated.
Strategic objectives and initial casualties
The scale of Operation Epic Fury is vast, involving a combination of air strikes and sea-launched cruise missiles. US military reports cited by Al Jazeera indicate that forces have struck more than 1,250 targets across Iran since the operation began. These strikes have been highly coordinated, focussing on nuclear-related facilities and high-ranking officials within the Iranian defence establishment. US Central Command (CENTCOM) further confirmed the destruction of 11 Iranian naval vessels in the initial waves of the assault.
The human and political toll of the first 48 hours has been catastrophic for the Iranian leadership. Most notably, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had held power since 1989, was killed when his Tehran compound was struck and destroyed during the opening salvo of US-Israeli strikes. As the conflict enters its first week, the Iranian Red Crescent has documented at least 555 fatalities across 130 different locations in the country. Despite the immediate impact, President Trump has signalled that the campaign is far from over, suggesting that operations could persist for four to five weeks or longer.
Financial weight of Middle Eastern intervention
The commencement of Operation Epic Fury comes at a time when US military spending in the region is already under intense scrutiny. Data from Brown University’s 2025 Costs of War report shows that the US had already committed roughly $21.7 billion in military aid to Israel since October 7, 2023. This figure does not include the additional $9.65 billion to $12.07 billion spent by the American taxpayer to fund direct US operations across Yemen, Iran, and the broader Middle East in support of Israel.
When these figures are combined, the total US expenditure related to regional conflicts prior to this week sat between $31.35 billion and $33.77 billion. The launch of a full-scale air campaign against a nation as large as Iran adds a massive, compounding layer to these existing costs. While the Pentagon has not yet released official budget figures for the new operation, early estimates suggest the financial burn rate is unprecedented for a modern localised conflict.
Projecting costs of a new war
According to Anadolu news agency, the United States likely spent approximately $779 million during just the first 24 hours of the operation.
Beyond the cost of munitions, the logistical build-up required to launch such an offensive is equally taxing. The repositioning of aircraft and the deployment of over a dozen naval vessels before the first strike is estimated to have cost an additional $630 million. Maintaining this presence is a daily drain on the treasury. The Center for New American Security noted that operating a single carrier strike group, such as the USS Gerald R Ford, costs approximately $6.5 million per day.
Attrition and unforeseen losses
The financial burden is not limited to fuel and ordnance but also encompasses the replacement of high-value military hardware. Even in these early stages, the US has suffered equipment losses. At least three US fighter jets were shot down in Kuwait in what has been described as a friendly-fire incident. As the conflict stretches into the four-to-five-week window suggested by the White House, the accumulation of operational costs, equipment attrition and regional instability will test whether Washington can truly sustain a new, prolonged war in the Middle East
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